Analysts are so bullish on facebooks mobile advertising prospects because

(Adds analysts’ comments, details on game announcement, background)

SAN FRANCISCO, July 30 (Reuters) - Facebook Inc’s stock on Tuesday came within a hair of reclaiming its $38 debut price for the first time since going public in 2012, a milestone in the social networking company’s effort to wipe away Wall Street’s skepticism of its business.

The stock has surged more than 40 percent in the past week after the company reported blowout quarterly results that showed Facebook’s progress building a mobile advertising business.

Shares of Facebook climbed as much as 7 percent to $37.96 in heavy trading on Tuesday, before settling back to finish the regular session at $37.63.

The social network, with 1.15 billion users, has never traded at or above $38 since its initial public offering in May 2012.

Facebook’s market value was cut in half in the months following the IPO as concerns about issues ranging from slowing revenue to massive insider selling made the Internet company’s stock a Wall Street punch line.

“Most companies of that size don’t re-accelerate their growth rate. Facebook’s been an exception,” said Aaron Kessler, an analyst with Raymond James.

“I would say they’re in better shape today than they were at the IPO price and the stock is still below that,” he said.

Facebook options volume was frenzied on Tuesday, as overall turnover was 3.8 times the recent daily average, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert. Traders on Tuesday exchanged 694,000 calls and 300,000 puts on Facebook.

The most popular options were the weekly $38 and $37 strike calls expiring this Friday as most traders expected gains in coming days.

One player liked the weekly $32.50 strike puts expiring on Aug. 9 which appeared to be bought 15,000 times for only a dime, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy.

Facebook’s recent success building a mobile advertising business - an area where many of its rivals have struggled - and the online service’s expanding number of daily users have won back investors’ respect and confidence in its prospects. That has fueled a rebound in the shares, which are up more than 50 percent in July.

Facebook said last week its mobile advertising revenue grew 75 percent in a span of three months, trouncing analyst targets and delivering the company’s strongest revenue growth since the third quarter of 2011.

Many analysts raised their price targets above the $38 level following Facebook’s quarterly report last week.

The second quarter results “were really a game-changer in terms of how Facebook is perceived on the Street,” said Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson. “It was pretty close to the perfect quarter.”

Facebook announced plans on Tuesday to help market and distribute mobile games on its social network in exchange for a cut of revenue that the games generate, raising hopes that the company could tap a new business.

And many investors expect Facebook to offer high-priced video ads in the coming months.

ERASING DOUBTS

Created in a Harvard dorm room by CEO Mark Zuckerberg in 2004, Facebook become the first American technology company to debut on Wall Street valued at more than $100 billion.

Facebook’s IPO was to have been the culmination of eight years of breakneck growth for a company that became a social and cultural phenomenon. Instead, it was marred by a series of trading glitches on its debut, and the company and its underwriters subsequently faced accusations of pumping up the price and inadequate disclosure.

Facebook shares opened 11 percent above the $38 offering price on May 18, 2012. But a series of problems that plagued the Nasdaq Stock Market where the shares debuted contributed to a sharp fall in the stock after it peaked that day at about $45. It closed at $38.23, and on the following Monday shares fell through the $38 price.

By early September, Facebook’s shares bottomed at $17.55.

The cool investor reception to Facebook and other consumer dotcom debutantes at the time, such as Groupon Inc to Zynga Inc, put a chill on the Silicon Valley IPO train.

“The question has never been do a lot of people go to Facebook. The question is how much revenue and profitability can Facebook derive from that activity,” said Pacific Crest’s Wilson.

“There have been many that have questioned whether or not Facebook would grow significantly, but Q2 kind of erased that doubt,” he said, referring to Facebook’s business. (Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Richard Chang and Lisa Shumaker)

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  • by  @markfwal, June 27, 2012

With the 40-day quiet period after Facebook’s IPO ended, the first wave of Wall Street analyst reports arrived Wednesday, weighing in on the company’s prospects following its rocky market debut in May.

As reported in The Wall Street Journal today, many analysts are taking a wait-and-see approach to Facebook, initiating coverage with neutral ratings over concerns about monetization. Facebook’s stratospheric valuation at launch also dampened enthusiasm for the stock, with even the most bullish analysts projecting it will take another year before the company gets back to its IPO price of $38 a share.

Much of Facebook’s future growth will hinge on its ad business, which accounted for 80% of its revenue in 2011. The initial research report from Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney, who rated Facebook as a “hold,” highlighted some of the challenges the company faces in maximizing its potential as an advertising platform.

On the plus side, the report noted that 85% of marketers use Facebook as a marketing tool, based on a survey of some 800 advertisers it conducted with Ad Age. Furthermore, more than half (56%) expect their Facebook budgets to increase over the next year, with 39% saying spending will be about the same.

But while Facebook is now an “experimental buy” for major brand advertisers, they have yet to make full budget commitments to the social network. Why? “Limited creative options, less-than-robust tracking and data analytics tools, and a somewhat uncooperative attitude were cited as negative factors by the advertisers we spoke with,” stated the Citigroup report.

Mahaney also noted it was somewhat surprising that big endemic advertisers like Amazon, eBay, Priceline and Expedia aren’t spending much on Facebook, either. “The fact that these highly sophisticated Online Advertisers aren’t committed to the Facebook platform should give potential investors in FB pause,” he wrote.

Their reluctance stemmed, in part, from uncertainty about return on investment of Facebook advertising, with 38% describing it as inferior to that of platforms such as Yahoo and Google.

In the months leading up to its IPO in particular, Facebook has been more aggressive in rolling out new ad offerings to attract spending and bolster revenue growth. The majority of marketers (58%) said they were happy with the company’s array of products and services, but a significant minority—42%--were not. Along with introducing more ad options, Mahaney suggested Facebook should also beef up its national sales force and advertising teams.

The most publicized shortcoming of Facebook’s ad strategy to date has been its lack of mobile monetization until recently. Early data from Facebook ad partners suggests sponsored stories in mobile are delivering higher click-through rates than on the desktop at lower rates.

The lower eCPMs in mobile may be welcome to advertisers but not necessarily Facebook’s bottom line. Even so, some analysts see significant upside to Facebook’s mobile ad efforts. Doug Anmuth, an analyst at JP Morgan, one of the lead underwriter’s of Facebook’s IPO, projects mobile could bring in $300 million to $500 million in the next two to four quarters “as higher pricing and visit frequency offset fewer overall impressions.” Anmuth has a “buy” rating on Facebook.

Citigroup’s Mahaney, by contrast, projects mobile advertising won’t even be material until 2014.

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